2025 Social Security Cola Increase Inflation Impact: What the Latest CPI Data Means for Your 2025 Social Security Benefits

 

Introduction:

What's going on everyone, welcome back to the show.

Overview:

So, we're going to take a look at the CPI score. I know I'm a little bit late; this happened a couple of days ago, but I got busy doing some of these polls. I've been doing some polling—I'm sure you guys have noticed on the channel. I want to keep doing those, but I do want to also talk about CPI and the impact of the latest numbers when it comes to inflation.

CPI and Inflation:

This is the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and every month they put out information regarding inflation. The CPI scores, or Consumer Price Index, are what they're focused on here.

The reason why this is important—well, there are a few reasons. One of the reasons you guys like to watch my channel is to hear about the CPI because we find out information about COLA, what it's going to be for 2025.

Current CPI Data:

So let me show you what I'm talking about here. If we're looking at year-over-year CPI, it's at 2.9%. Now, when we look at this graph, it gives us a better indicator of what we've been seeing over the last year. Starting back in July of 2023, we saw some fluctuations.

Recent Trends:

We saw a little uptick, then it came back down, went up a bit more, and then came all the way down in June where we saw a negative number—0.1%. The month prior, in May, it was flat, with no change. Now we're seeing a slight increase of 0.2%. The Federal Reserve is actually happy to see the 0.2% increase because a continued decline could indicate a recession.

Core Inflation vs. All Items:

Looking at core inflation, which excludes energy and food, has continued to come down since July 2023. Core inflation is less volatile, which is why the Federal Reserve uses it to determine interest rate cuts.

Food Categories:

Let's take a look at some of the categories. Year-over-year CPI for all items is 2.9%. For food, it's 2.2% year-over-year with a slight increase of 0.2%. Food at home saw a slight increase of 0.1%, with a year-over-year increase of 1.1%. This means food costs 1.1% more than it did in 2023 on average.

Food Away from Home:

Food away from home saw a 4.1% increase. Fast food restaurants have introduced value deals to attract customers who are done paying high prices.

Energy Costs:

Energy costs are up by 1.1%, with energy commodities down by 2%. Energy prices are very volatile, going up and down.

Shelter Costs:

Shelter is the real driver right now at 5.1%. The cost of housing, whether renting or buying, is very expensive in places like California, New York, and Miami. High interest rates are pushing people to rent, which drives up rental prices.

COLA for 2025:

Let's talk about COLA for 2025 and Social Security. We have our first indicator at 2.9%. Next month, I’ll update you with more numbers. In late September, I’ll give you my prediction based on July, August, and September data.

The Senior Citizens League projects a 2.57% COLA for 2025, down from 2.63% due to decreasing inflation. This projection could mean an increase of about $40 for the average Social Security recipient, but with Medicare deductions, the net increase might be around $30.

Conclusion:

So, I want to know what you guys think about this. Let me know in the comments below. If you liked this video, please give me a thumbs up and subscribe for more. I'll talk to you in the next one. Bye!